The sociologist and the economist

I'm temporizing with a joke while I assemble the monthly jobs charts, which will be a day or two later than usual because of a particularly busy time in my side project. 

Ever wonder what's the difference between sociology and economics?  Here's a succinct illustration:

A sociologist walked up to an economist and said, "Would you be so kind as to give me a dollar for a sandwich?"  The economist replied, "I don't know; let me see the sandwich."

Comments

[troy]

I've enjoyed your blog for many months now--paradigm changing! ..... Sometimes, it has been hard to understand and I've had to work at it, line by line, finding myself agreeing with your views eventually.

However, try as I might, my humor fails me..... I don't get this joke......

[tttar]

The sociologist is begging for a dollar, so he can eat.

The economist only understands money, and thinks he's trying to sell him a sandwich, so he wants to first see if it's worth the dollar. :)

[tttar]

I try to understand the site line-by-line also, and am still, perhaps naively, convinced that the differences between what's said here and the views at

http://mwhodges.home.att.net/

can be explained by a simple, side-by-side spreadsheet, with 95% of the variables being in agreement, and a couple of easily-defined differences.

I would then be able to tell just who's full of it, here.

But we get pages and pages of "noise" on both sides, which leaves amateurs like me speculating. It reminds me of political and religious debates, most of which I've finally been able to figure out.

But shouldn't something with supposedly "hard numbers" be even easier to get?

[tttar]

To put it another way:

You think you really know something, after reading either one or the other site? Do ya? Do ya?

Then go demonstrate your "knowledge" to the other guy. See how it holds up then!

Betcha can't do it! ;-)

[AMTanatar]

I really don't want to be mean, but for the most of 2007 you were puffing away the possibility of recession and hard landing (i.e. "commercial real estate will pick the economy up" or "job number predicts 9 recessions out of 5" or "the US economy will grow its way out of the deficit". Did you run out of arguments and decided to hammer sociologists instead? I'm afraid they are the ones who got thigs right this time.

[Steve]

ttar:

Try asking Hodges if he thinks the debt will eventually have to be paid back (down to zero). If he says yes, that should be all you need to know. But if you want to pursue it further, ask him why we couldn't just keep rolling it over. And maybe ask him what he thinks about this model that looks out to 2050, especially the "huge" debt even in the rosy scenarios: http://tinyurl.com/2sztvw

Also: I presume you have read the comments policy here(?). Your email address looks fake.

[Steve]

AMT:

Please provide some links to those direct quotes. I don't remember brushing off the possibility of a recession, or predicting it wouldn't happen -- but my memory isn't perfect.

By the way, there are still some holdouts on the recession question. Here's a pdf published today, for example: http://tinyurl.com/28qanz

[tttar]

Steve,

I was teasing a little bit, because I've been frustrated for years, trying to figure out how one side can forecast disaster, and the other be much more optimistic. I have a lot of respect for both of you guys (and others who represent either view), because you obviously are competent and honestly convinced of your positions.

But, as with many such debates (also in many other areas), it seems that it's the amateurs who have to do the real debating (ineffectively), because the guys at the top seem to have dismissed each other as being so silly as to not be worth their time - when they're the ones who perhaps should be talking, with everyone else being spectators.

The address is real, and we've written a couple of times before. You're a good guy. I'm too stupid to tell either of you why you may be wrong, and I'm probably not alone. :)

[Gil]

The secondary deeper punchline is that Sociology isn't a financially rewarding career.

Still it's a variation of the joke:

"I see you have a new dog Bob."

"Yeah, I got it for my wife."

"Hmmm. Good trade!"

[markg]

What has history told us about the public debt to gdp ratio? At the end of WWII the ratio was over 100%. The economy performed very well for middle class America from the end of the war through the 1960s. By the time we got to the 70s the ratio had dropped to below 40%. One word describes the 70s economically - stagflation. By the end of the 70s the ratio reached a low point of about 27%. Then came Reagan and the ratio started climbing reaching back above 40% by the mid 1980s. The economy performed much better until Bush1 "read my lips no new taxes" raised taxes and the ratio dipped to about the 40% and the economy went into the recession of 1991. By the time Clinton took office the ratio was climbing again reaching a high of almost 50% by 1995. Just how were those years economically? Then came Gingrich and the Republican "contract with America" and spending was cut causing the ratio to drop, going back under 40% by 2000. Again, along came recession. The ratio started climbing again after the Bush2 tax cuts but never reached back above the 40% level. And of course the ratio has been falling the last couple years and here we are again - recession?