FQ.08.03: Favorite Quote for This Week

I reviewed what articles and working papers in economics I could find.  They collectively show no convincing evidence that economists as a community have an ability to predict, and, if they have some ability, their predictions are at best just slightly better than random ones—not good enough to help with serious decisions. 
—N. N. Taleb, The Black Swan

Comments

[Neocon Spinner]

Taleb - a libertarian with economic thinking that leans to the free market type economics, is exactly opposite of all the meaningless interventionist charts, numbers and text posted on this blog.

Leave economics to market, pundits know nothing. Steve is no exception. Nothing against Steve in particular. He is no better or worse than the community that Taleb refers to

[Gil]

Is it me or do economic advisers who say 'let the market work it out' or 'let the market be' are doing themselves out of a job?

[Bob]

Most of what we refer to as economics is really human behavior. And there lies the conundrum. Human's can often behave in unpredictable ways though such tendencies as herd mentality and contrarian thought provide enough ammunition for those who want to make their predictions.

I'm not sure if everything is based on chance. We know enough, right now, about how people think to make reasonable assumptions.

And that can be either good or bad.

[Neocon Spin Master]

"Most of what we refer to as economics is really human behavior."

Precisely the reason why the austrian school emphasizes praxeology. Why do you think Mises named his masterpiece human action. One of the important reasons why economics should be left to market. One of the reasons why long term retiremen planning through state run programs are very likely to fail over the long term. All these charts and projections on debts and GDP are likely to go awry when a real black swan event ( very likely to be the result of increasing government tampering in the markets ) hits the economy.