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I hate to be this "Pollyannish," but I think that within another century we will be able to hold it off.

After we get past this current "Global Warming" silliness, and start listening to the "Real" Scientists we'll find a way to stop it in it's tracks at Cape Horn (where it will start.)

BTW, isn't it going to be hard to "grind" NY into the Sea after Sea levels have dropped 400 ft.?

rufus:
The last ice-age glacier advanced 2000 miles and was at least a half-mile thick.

"...severely disrupt economies and national boundaries"

Since it'll happen over a long period of time, I doubt it will be too severe. That's the same mistake the global warmenists make. That'll also happen so slowly no one will notice.

Yeah, I know, Steve; but, the Ocean is going to be many miles away from NY by the time the ice "Forms over it."

Steve, most of the geologists that have studied this agree that the Glaciation will really get going when the Antarctic Sea Ice expands out far enough to cut off the flow of warm water around the Cape.

The Malenkovitch cycles (the earth's orbit becoming more elliptical, the tilt, and wobble on the axis) will get the ball rolling, and the cutting off of the warm currents will really put it into high gear. This is all magnified, and made "official" by the albedo (?) effect.

The "albedo" effect would be one thing that we could really do some work on.

Did you hear about the democrats who hope a Nobel Peace Prize win by Gore could push him into the race for president?

http://tinyurl.com/3962wd

To me, it's a disgrace to think someone could win a Nobel Peace Prize for making a movie trying to scare everyone back to the stone age. What does Global Warming have to do with peace anyway? This reeks of political bias within the ranks of the board that decides these things, it's shameful!

rufus, the glaciers don't come out of the ocean. The come 'down' from the norhern ice fields or 'up' from the southern ice fields (which are oceanic but expand from the Antarctic continent). In other words, it doesn't matter where the tidal level is, it matters how cold it gets.

The water to form the glaciers comes from the Ocean. Thus, the ocean will be long-gone from NY by the time the City freezes over.

If I remember correctly, New York is a very shallow harbor.

rufus:

Glaciers covered New York last ice age, but I guess you're right in a way. The glaciers may grind what is now New York into what is now sea. But by then, Now-Sea will no longer be sea. It will be barren, frigid coastal plains, or more New York.

I'm personally looking forward to the seas retreating, because there must be a lot of great archaeological sites from 12,000+ YBP down there. Now if I could just extend my life span for a few millenia.

Now, how much band-width did we waste on that? I gotta get a hobby. :)

I can think of nothing more hilarious that Al Gore running for president again -- preferably as a 3rd party candidate. If a Nobel will sucker him in to that, I say let him have it. Throw in the Heisman and the NFL MVP trophies too.

Meanwhile, fret all you want, I'm angling to profit hugely from this advancing glaciers thing.

"Fortunately, the documentary implies we have a few hundred years to prepare for the new Ice Age."

Steve, I think you're wrong about that. Tens of thousands of years is the lower end of scientific consensus to my knowledge. Would appreciate any info to the contrary.

EA:
You're right, a few hundred is the lower end; I should have said a few hundred to a few thousand. The continents are now positioned to restrict the amount of warm water reaching the poles, but triggering the glaciers might take a few millennia. We might be able to control it by then.

"Wouldn't it be wise to start discussing today how future generations might make an orderly-as-possible transition to the coming, much-colder world? "

Yep, let's start. He's some suggestions:

Buy 2207 LEAPS on Johnson and Johnson. UV Sunblock products will take off.

Designate that all new coal fired generating plants will be located along the 45th parallel. The carbon emissions will help slow the glacier advance while we migrate to Cancun.

Teach birth control to the polar bears. It may get a bit crowded in
Syracuse.

In short, there are models that predict an ice age in a couple of thousand years. However, most models predict a global warming in a couple of hundred years at most, so worrying about ice age is a bit premature.

Per Tim Patterson, it could start as soon as 2018: "...In June 2007 he authored a general interest article in the Financial Post (part of the National Post) predicting general climatic cooling as the sun enters Solar cycle 25 about 2018. He based his prediction on the close correlation between solar and climate cycles in his high resolution analysis of late Holocene cores deposited under anoxic conditions within deep Western Canadian fjords. Solar cycle 25 will be as weak as solar cycles in the early 19th century during a very cold phase of the Little Ice Age...."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Patterson

Well it has been a while, even though I have snooped in now and then. Busy, busy, busy. But having done research on acid rain in 1979, and having read about the greenhouse effect, global warming and heavy metal contamination way back when, and having spent 27 years in commercial nuclear power, I have had many thoughts on this subject. But they all boil down to this, no matter whose model you believe, it is probably not a good idea to dig up and pump up tons of crap every year from beneath the earths surface and throw it into the atmosphere? And if we do not "have" to do it, why do we "keep" on doing it. Twenty seven years of keeping folks safe while splitting atoms and waiting.....

how about this solar cycle 2008 will be lovest sunspoty in last many milenias. maybe about 8 to 10 even during last littel ice age this number was around 50. so why do u think this winter is this cold? we didnt cut using petrol or coil. I dont think we have 100s of year to see next ice age. I hope u all will be around the see it, ofcourse if you are living in city u have no chance to see it long be4 ice come others would kill u.

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