Is oil independence day within sight?

The secretive company Eestor will apparently make its new technology available to a third party for inspection soon, probably by the end of 2007.  Its new technology is the ultracapacitor, and if it lives up to its media hype, it will render today's battery technology obsolete.  That, in turn, would render the automobile's internal combustion engine obsolete. 

That's the hype, anyway.  If it turns out to be true, or even half true, and there are no show-stopping drawbacks, oil independence for North America would at last be within sight. 

There are skeptics, and rightly so.  The recent article in the Canadian Press details the promise of the new technology, a well as a few potential roadblocks.  The promise is that it will knock down one huge barrier we've been discussing here for quite a while:

...chemical researchers say the strength and functionality of this [ultracapacitor's] material is the only thing standing between EEStor and the holy grail of energy-storage technology. 

I, for one, hope this doesn't turn out to be just another cold fusion fiasco.  We should know by the end of the year, after outside experts have had a chance to see and test Eestor's ultracapacitor. 

The way I see it, there's almost nothing but upside, because if it works...
• the world won't need Middle East oil much longer;
• the world won't need Peak Oil blogs much longer (...the Stone Age didn't end because we ran out of stones, and the oil age won't end because we ran out of oil);
• the world won't need global-warming-is-our-fault blogs much longer;
• the USA won't need food-supply-reducing ethanol any longer;
• government-imposed performance mandates for new gasoline-powered cars will become irrelevant;
• the inventors and entrepreneurs will be odds-on favorites to become the world's first trillionaires, setting records for the amount of taxes they'd pay. 

On the other hand, if it doesn't work (i.e., if it turns out to be just another cold fusion fiasco), we'll at least get a few good jokes about it from Leno and Letterman. 

As I said, nothing but upside.  For North Americans, anyway. 

Comments

[AlfaCentavra]

Every year America will allocate 0,1 billion dollars for thermonuclear reactor ITER. It is real independence.
For the military purposes is allocated 600 billion dollars. Gorillas operate America. Bush is a man of the Stone Age.

[DW]

The US contribution to the ITER project is based on an international agreement. From Wikipedia: "At the June 2005 conference in Moscow the participating members of the ITER cooperation agreed on the following division of funding contributions: 50% by the hosting member, the European Union and 10% by each non-hosting member.[13] According to sources at the ITER meeting at Jeju, Korea, the six non-host partners will now contribute 6/11th of the total cost — a little over half — while the EU will put in the rest. As for the industrial contribution, five countries (China, India, Korea, Russia, and the US) will contribute 1/11th each for 5/11th total, Japan 2/11th, and EU 4/11th." ITER is fundamentally an EU-funded program with financial/scientific support from China, India, Korea, Russia, and the US. Sorry to go off topic - just wanted to clarify the basis for the US contribution.

[Fat Man]

Ignore ultracapacitor hype

The claim is a 500 mi charge in 5 minutes.
500 mi = 800 km
5 min = 300 sec

I have researched electric cars using NREL’s data, and based on their electric car research and the amount of gasoline used by the Honda Insight, an 850kg sub-compact sized car, I believe that you might get 100km for 50MJ (J= Joule = 1 watt * 1 second) of electricity.

So 800 km would require 400 MJ of electricity = 400 MWs.

400 MWs / 300 s = 1.3 MW

Watts = volts * amperes

Clearly we would need currents of kilo-amperes at kilo-volts to meet the claim. I doubt if this can be done by untrained people without special equipment.

Conclusion. Nothing to see here, move right along, please.

[Bob]

I don't have enough scientific knowledge to tell if this is a silver bullet or not. However, I found nothing in the article that leads me to pooh-pooh this.

I've experienced firsthand how a group of smug scientists and engineers can miss an opportunity. Since this seems to be a frame-breaking invention, the "paltry" investment seems to me to be justified. I'd want more proof before I throw a ton of dough at this.

I agree with Steve that, even if they come up with half the mileage and double (or triple or quadruple) the charge time, it will still be an incredible discovery.

[Kevin]

I was hoping Steve would comment on EEstore, and I'm encouraged that every single article I've seen on them is layered with skeptical disclaimers, so people aren't going all nuts over it (which would surely be the case if it were some crappy penny stock).

I'll stay optimistic and see. But I'll throw in the standard disclaimers: 230 million cars in the US, new car market = only 16.5 million a year, zero super-high voltage filling stations, etc etc.

It took us 110 years to get where we are now with ICE engines. Even if EEstor surpasses all hype, it's a long, long, long slog before we're done with oil.

[rufus]

Steve: food costs are much more closely aligned with energy costs than the availability of land. We have the land to feed THIRTY Billion people, at least. I hope the ultra-capacitor story works out. If it doesn't THIS YEAR, it probably will SOME YEAR. However, if it doesn't the spread of ethanol and other biofuels will continue to bring/hold energy costs down; and, that is a major good thing for "Food" Security in the World.

Ex. Our Corn "Exports" are up, considerably, this year despite our using a Record amount for the production of ethanol.

[ilsm]

Independence from mid east oil could have been achieved in the early 1990's.

In the late 70's a mix of conservation and alternatives woke the OPEC up and through the 80's real OPEC prices dropped year over year.

Oil could be extracted from ground to tanker for less than $5 per bbl in 88.

So, they dropped their margins and made alternatives uneconomical.

Who said there should not be a tariff on OPEC oil?

There continue to be numerous alternatives, all are more expensive than the low margin cost of Persian Gulf oil.

Particularly since the US does not charge the world for security.

[rufus]

Steve, I didn't go far enough with that post. Let me explain.

Food is Cheap. Wherever you are in the world the problem isn't the cost of food; it's the lack of wealth. It doesn't matter how cheap food is if you don't have any money. A friend told me one time that he was "So Broke" that if fish was a quarter a pound all he could do would be to stand on the dock and say, "Boy, ain't them fish CHEAP?" Unfortunately, all a large part of the world can do is stand on the dock and say, "Boy, them fish are cheap."

As we benefit from lower energy prices provided by African Villagers growing cassava plants for ethanol we will be able to less expensively provide goods for them to buy with their newfound wealth. No, Steve, the more land we use for fuel production the more people we will have in the world that AREN'T food insecure.

I'll shut up now; thanks for listening. Oh, and, as you know, I love your blog. :)

[Salvatorem]

Lets take Fat Man's analysis one step further to figure the cost per "fill-up." 1.3 mW-hr equals 1300 kWh. Assume electricity will cost 20 cents per kwh in a few years from now, so (1300kwh)*($0.20/kwh)*(1/12hr)=$21.67 to fill up your tank with enough electrons to travel 400 miles. If the normal Honda Insight gets 50 mpg, that would require 8 gallons of gas at $3, or $24 total to travel the same distance. So using Fat Mans numbers, the capacitor is economically viable.

[Aaron]

I could be wrong, but doesn't the fact that physical products like this only get 20 year patents instead of copyright for software mean that the makers of physical products have a harder time making "billions?" Just a thought I had when thinking about the new "trillionaires."

Also, we probably need to consider the cost of the physical product when compared to a gas tank. It may not be worth the savings if it costs $10,000 a unit versus US$ 100 for the gas tank and saves you only US$ 1,000 per year..

[Stephen Reed]

FatMan,

I'm no engineer, but I read the 5 minutes as "in as little as 5 minutes." I don't see anything precluding a longer charge with lower volts and amps.

[Stephen Reed]

Aaron,

If the product works as claimed, I wouldn't be surprised to see over 50 million units sold worldwide per year once production gets ramped up. Even a $1,000 profit per unit would be big bucks.

[Stephen Reed]

Salvatorem,

EEstor is claiming 500 miles on one charge, making it even more viable.

[Kevin]

*** I wouldn't be surprised to see over 50 million units sold worldwide per year once production gets ramped up. ***

Stephen, that's grossly over-optimistic. It would certainly take decades to reach that point. Were you aware that the entire annual world production of light vehicles is only about 63 million? That's with a 110-year head start, and they all burn gasoline or diesel.

How long do you think it's going to take the whole world's automotive industry to totally redesign vehicles and refit plant and equipment to accommodate new production of electric cars? Many new car models on the lots today will still be exactly the same in 2013, and all of the others will simply have graduated to the next redesign, using internal combustion of course.

Long, long time, for such a seismic change, a point I keep trying to make when people get so pie in the sky.

[Bob]

Kevin:

I'm no manufacturing expert but I know enough to state, rather confidently, that processes are more adaptable and flexible than you may think. If demand takes off all the manufacturers will find a way to meet it...as fast as they can.

I refer to again to the mental maps that we all have about this. Those maps are ingrained (110 years according to you). Mention electric transportation and your brain immediately triggers the known...the gas stations, refineries, spark plug manufacturers..all of it and your mental map can't envision them not
being here.

Yes, it won't happen overnight though I'd venture that, should a breakthrough occur, twenty years is within reach.

[Kevin]

Fair enough Bob -- a lot can happen in 20 years. All those caveats aside, I'm hoping this EEstor thing pans out, the company's about 10 miles from my house!