As expected, economic growth for the second quarter was revised upwards in today's release. Not reflected in the Q2 numbers, of course, are any effects the recent turmoil in the money markets might have on aggregate growth. The fundamental business indicators are still mostly positive, but the bears are predicting that the housing slowdown will translate into a drag on consumption, the largest component of GDP. We won't know for another few months, because the GDP number is a rear-view mirror indicator of where we'e been.
Here's this month's chart.
Have the recent upward revisions been unusual from an historical perspective? Can we reject the null hypothesis that the revisions Bush has received have been different than the revisions previous US Presidents have received?
There seem to be an inordinate number of upward revisions for Bush's administration.
Posted by: Nobody of Importance | 01 September 2007 at 23:02