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Steve Conover over at one my favorite blogs, The Skeptical Optimist, had a fascinating post the other day discussing useful and not-useful energy. His premise centered around previously-reported breakthrough in hydrogen generation technology using an a... [Read More]

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A transition from gasoline to any other energy source represents a paradigm shift. Our mental (and economic) models are very familiar with what we have now. Propose a change to those models pro-actively (very desirable) as opposed to a reactive, forced change (pain relief and highly undesirable)and our mental models
get all out of whack. Inject this proposed change into a familiar economic model and it gets worse. The spreadsheet junkies get a big fix, though.

Somehow, we prefer stasis (status quo) even when facts prove that stasis is unsustainable. Bureaucrats are particularly fond of preserving stasis because their
self interest demands it.

Hey Bob, are you one of those change zealots? No and I have an aversion to those "everything is broke, fix it" people. Some stuff should, indeed must, change and some stuff is better left alone is the way I look at it. We could get a big discussion going about all that "stuff" but that's not the purpose of this blog.

We either have an energy problem or we don't. I'm convinced we do and the sooner we go about solving it (and it may mean more than one solution) the better. Doing nothing is no longer an option and we have been doing nothing for far too long.

I don't if I'll be plugging my car in an outlet or running my garden hose to the tank. However, regardless of the net energy debate surrounding ethanol I find it absurd to consider using foodstuffs as fuel.

Sorry, Steve, I had to get that in.

It all boils down to generation, storage, and conversion to useful form. Biofuels are terrible at generation. They convert very little of the solar energy into useful energy. They are good at storage considering the energy density and lenght of time they can be stored. Photovoltaic is over 100 times better than bio at converting solar into useful energy, but the storage is much worse. The other problem with photovoltaic (and wind) is the upfront cost. Once the systems are installed there are very little additional cost involved. This makes it almost impossible for middle class America to impliment. Imagine if you had to pay for 20 years of gas upfront for your car. Solar is cost competative - over the life of the system. So this puts middle class America at the mercy of maximum profit seeking, politician buying, business America. We can see where that has taken us over the last 30 years (still no energy plan for this country).
If Congress were to subsidize the upfront cost of solar, who would be eligible? Should be anybody with land. That means middle class homeowner Americans could collectively generate a big chunk of energy taking away pricing power from big business America. Like Congress is going to do that!

I've been studying this for a couple of years on an amateur level. Here are a few of my conclusions.

It takes a bit less than 10 gallons of ethanol (in a properly tuned engine) to grow 150 bushels of corn, or, about 450 gallons of ethanol. Note: your newer plants that utilize some of the cobs and stover will increase this by about 100 gallons/acre.

By fractionating the kernel, and burning the fiber, you can refine the ethanol with about $0.05/gal worth of nat gas, and you can co-produce enough fertilizer, and char, to replace all but about another $0.05/gal worth of nat gas.

So yes, Steve, it would be a Big-Time Winner to use ethanol in the production. Be careful what you believe. A huge amount of what you're reading is API "Talking Points."

Reading the comments, the energy used to make the fuel vs. energy given to the wheels debate seems a moot point. The real issue is the one pound of aluminum per mile aspect. Changing a 300 pound brick once a week is not going to fly with the average driver. That would be like having to change out your whole gas tank at every fill up.

Refining aluminum is extremely energy intensive (there is a reason a lot of it is done in China and Canada, where wholesale electricity is cheap), but the real number we should be looking at is the energy storage density of this. Would 300 pounds of lithium ion batteries supply more power to the wheels than 300 pounds of Aluminum and Gallium? Both ways you need large amounts of electricity (to charge the batteries or recycle the aluminum), so the one that uses that electricity most efficiently while meeting size and weight targets seems the better choice. Anyone want to math that out?

The original Ethanol-Bashers (Pimenta, et al) based their goofy energy inefficiency meme on the amount of "Solar Energy" that was "Inefficiently Used" by the Corn Plant.

The fact that he was the founder, and director, of the Southern California Oil Consortium through which the Oil Companies paid him hundreds of thousands of dollars was purely coincidental I assume.

Yikes! It was "Patzek," not Pimental; and, it was University of Cal Oil Consortium. But, other than that . . . .

I propose an experiment: grow, harvest, process, store and refine ethanol--USING ONLY ETHANOL as inputs. Subtract these inputs from the ethanol produced. End this silly, politicized, irrational debate once and for all.

But wait, the universities won't step up because they want federal grant money! And energy companies won't either because they are in the crosshairs of Congress and the Media (a pretty deadly concoction).

But the question remains, once we have green power, is it more efficient to convert the gallium catalyst and run our cars with hydrogen engines, or is it more efficient to channel that power directly into batteries and electric motors?

I have not been able to hear any info about that. Electric motors are pretty efficient, but batteries are heavy and not so environmentally friendly.

If the answer is the latter, what if we then take into account the manufacturing wastes and costs from each?

Ultralame, probably the most efficient well to wheels you'll see in the next ten or fifteen years will be a fuel cell powered by bio-gas (think natural gas derived from corn.) However, our whole infrastructure is set up for "Liquid" fuels. As a result, ethanol will play a bigger, and bigger role in the near to intermediate future.

It can, once you've accounted for co-products, be sold for $1.15/gal Wholesale very profitably (Without subsidies;) and, it can be marketed using existing infrastructure.

Keep in mind that the EPA, in cooperation with another agency (I can't remember which one off the top of my head, but I read the report) derived better mileage, and more power from a VW 1.9 liter 4 cylinder engine than could be achieved with either gasoline, or diesel. The main "tweak" was in much higher compression (ethanol is less dense than gasoline, but has much higher Octane rating.)

Oh, one other thing, then I'll shut up. The problem the Engine Manufacturers are faced with is: An engine that's optimized for gasoline (and, this includes FFV's) will run on high concentrations of ethanol, such as e85 (with, admittedly, inferior fuel mileage;) but an engine optimized for ethanol (e85, for instance) WILL NOT run on gasoline. The Compression ratio is just too high.

Considering that there are at present only 1284 stations in the U.S. that sell e85, you can see the Manufacturers' dilemma.

This will all work out, but it will be an uneven path with the Big Oil Companies fighting all the way. Bottom Line:

Wholesale Unleaded, today $2.04. Wholesale ethanol profitable at $1.15.

All you Really need to know.

I'd still be more comfortable if the government didn't decide in advance which technology would be best. The record of governments in such situations is not good.

Mark, I don't know what the fascination with 'plans' is for some. A 'plan' solves nothing. The USSR had a steady progression of Five-Year Plans for the whole darned country. How did that work out?

I believe that a largish part of the problem actually *is* politicians pushing 'plans' because it gives them a chance to pretend that they're actually accomplishing something.

I'd still be more comfortable if the government didn't decide in advance which technology would be best. The record of governments in such situations is not good.

Mark, I don't know what the fascination with 'plans' is for some. A 'plan' solves nothing. The USSR had a steady progression of Five-Year Plans for the whole darned country. How did that work out?

I believe that a largish part of the problem actually *is* politicians pushing 'plans' because it gives them a chance to pretend that they're actually accomplishing something.

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