The latest Monthly Treasury Statement shows that the trend towards a balanced budget has a little less momentum than last month. October 2008 is when revenues and spending would move into balance if the latest trends continue. (For the last two years, the projected balance date has been oscillating between early 2008 and mid 2009.)
Here's the usual chart; click to enlarge:
On the spending side, I thought the following numbers were interesting.
• Military, most recent 12 months:
$520.2 billion, growing at 4.7% annual rate.• Dept. of Health and Human Services, most recent 12 months:
$660.4 billion, growing at 9.2% annual rate.
Seems to me the HHS numbers are not getting their fair share of attention from the spending-conscious mainstream media. Or maybe I'm not checking the right news outlets(?).
On Katie Couric's news this evening, she mentioned that the deficit is 35% less than it was a year ago. I'm not a fan of hers, but at least somebody in mainstream media noticed.
Posted by: Salvatorem | 12 June 2007 at 20:46
Steve, looks like the slowing economy has had its effect. I still think that by the end of the FY we will be sitting @$100B lower than last year.
If that happens we should fall below $100B around the first of the CY. Then all bets are off for raising spending. Election year doncha know.
Posted by: Counter Revolutionary | 12 June 2007 at 20:47
I imagine a goodly part of the HHS increase is the new Medicare Part D kicking in.
Posted by: rufus | 12 June 2007 at 20:57
Is it just my imagination or have politicians cooled it on the deficit talk? I know some are still mentioning it, but not with the same sense of (misplaced) urgency, it seems.
I wonder if their advisers are telling them to cool it on the deficit talk, as by the time the election comes around it won't be much of an issue. (Not to say it's a very big deal as it stands right now.)
Posted by: Another Steve | 12 June 2007 at 21:00
I don't understand how the annualize income for the month can be so much less than last month. The local rise last month was reportedly due to a large increase in April. That should remain in the annual income for quite a while. Was the income from May 07 really that much less than May 06? This is the first point in the income trend line that showed a decrease from the prior month. Is there a reasonable technicallity to explain that, is it an outlier or is it a more fundamental change?
Posted by: Crashex | 12 June 2007 at 21:09
All that stock market churning will have an affect on the July receipts.
While the growth of the economy is slowing - if a slowing is defined as a 1 quarter change in growth - there is still very little unemployment.
Receipts will hold at about an 11% increase. The nice thing is that Congress can't seem to get their hands around the pork this year. Spending looks to grow at about 3%.
So churning capital gains profits and low unemployment will boom receipts. We only have to wait till August 10th...
Posted by: Boghie | 12 June 2007 at 21:14
Crashex,
The CBO (www.cbo.gov) now projects the numbers based on the MTS daily ledger - take a peek at that one if you want to get confused, eh...
For the April estimate they mentioned that there was an additional tax day in April and, more importantly, that the IRS was able to process more tax returns this year than last. At least one part of the government is getting better, eh. Basically, fewer returns lagged in some inbox this year than last. Thus, some of this year's April receipts would have counted for May if the processes were the same.
Watch the July 11 MTS monthly report to see if their really is a downturn in receipts. I was wrong in my previous post. Quarterly tax payments occur in June and will be annotated in the June MTS in early July...
Posted by: Boghie | 12 June 2007 at 21:22
Economy has slowed some, but employment remains high so income tax receipts should remain at its steady growth. FICA, ditto. Corporate taxes slightly lower. But the economy seems poised to take off again.
Now if we can control spending for one more year its over.
What has been amazing is the Pols have not understood what is going on. I have given Carl Rove the credit, not sure that isn't true, but it surely has been a stealthy move. Been going on for four years and Steve may have been the first to catch on, outside of those who are engineering it. For me, that is the amazing part.
Posted by: corev | 12 June 2007 at 21:57