The Fed has posted the monthly interest rates for January, so I updated my monthly chart. Although I’m not in the business of forecasting interest rates, I did make some guesses about the past. Specifically, I made some guesses as to what the Fed Board of Governors must have been thinking at a few points over the last eleven years; see the little yellow boxes on the chart below.
Note that I am making no guess as to what they are thinking right now. (I considered, then decided against, the following guess: “Hey, folks, does anybody remember what happened the last time we did this?”).
Click to enlarge.
