What the Fed must have been thinking

The Fed has posted the monthly interest rates for January, so I updated my monthly chart.  Although I’m not in the business of forecasting interest rates, I did make some guesses about the past.  Specifically, I made some guesses as to what the Fed Board of Governors must have been thinking at a few points over the last eleven years; see the little yellow boxes on the chart below. 

Note that I am making no guess as to what they are thinking right now.  (I considered, then decided against, the following guess: “Hey, folks, does anybody remember what happened the last time we did this?”). 

Click to enlarge.