Real growth for Q4 2005 was 2.6%, not 1.1%; that’s my studied opinion, anyway. Although I agree that the USA’s growth rate hit a pothole in Q4 2005, it was a shallower pothole than reported. Below is the monthly table I’ve been posting, comparing the official number (based on a one-quarter trend) to the one I think is better (because it’s based on a smoother, two-quarter trend).
[UPDATE: Click here for a brief, explicit summary of the math.]
It will take two or three months to see if I’m right, but as I explained in a post nine months ago, the alternate method has proved to be better when tested against past data.
