The Monthly Treasury Statement was issued a few days ago. The deficit is still shrinking, but not at last month’s rate. If the trends in outlays and receipts (using the most recent 12 months) are sustained, the budget wouldn’t come into balance until election day 2008. Too bad; last month it looked like it would happen in time for the conventions that summer.
Click to enlarge.
Below is the “interest burden” chart. Although it’s still in good territory, I don’t like the November results. Could this be just a blip, or is it the beginning of a trend? The December results (due in January) should start to clear that up for us.
Click to enlarge.
Both of these charts deserve scrutiny in the upcoming months. Tax receipts need to continue growing at a faster rate than outlays—otherwise I’ll have to join the chorus on cutting the growth of spending. That’s okay, I’m ready with a few ideas, but I’ll see what next month’s numbers bring.
Sorry this is a few days later than usual.
I had been wondering how much of an impact the rising interest rates on treasury securities would have on interest owed on the debt - as the debt rolls over into higher-rate securities, interest rises. This, presumably, is why interest paid on the debt fell between 1999 and 2004. Is what we're seeing now wholly due to rising rates?
Posted by: Morgan | 16 December 2005 at 19:25
Morgan, I was thinking the same thing. The good news is the fed reserve has recently hinted that its campaign to raise interest rates will soon come to an. This is great news as the economy will still benefit from relatively low interest rates (continued growth), and it should keep interest paid on the national debt in manageable territory.
Posted by: Will | 16 December 2005 at 22:15