The debt surpassed $8 trillion and the GDP surpassed $12.3 trillion. Result: no change in the USA's debt burden. The debt-to-GDP ratio is 64.8%, same as last month.
Those numbers, no doubt, are disappointing to the folks who keep hoping for disappointing news—and there are plenty of them out there—but if they need some perverse cheering up, I'm still forecasting an end-of-year increase to 65.2%. That would still be well below Japan's 164% and the Euro area's 79%, but edging upwards nonetheless.
This time, the BEA's official estimate for GDP growth is a little higher than the smoother two-quarter trend is predicting. Here are the GDP numbers:
[UPDATE: Click here for a brief, explicit summary of the math.]
Below is this month's National Debt Thermometer, Inflation Meter, and debt burden forecast. (Inflation moved above 3%; I hope that is a short-term aberration.) Please email me if you have any questions about the results, or suggestions for improvement.
Click to enlarge.
Click to enlarge.
