Sep 2005 GDP, National Debt Thermometer

The Bureau of Economic Analysis published the final GDP numbers for Q2-2005 today—and, as in previous months, I think growth is understated. 

(And here's why I think it's understated.)

[UPDATE: Click here for a brief, explicit summary of the math.]

Also, because GDP was adjusted upwards a little while the debt stayed at essentially the same level as last month, the debt burden dropped almost a half point to 64.5% of GDP.  Moreover, if GDP continues increasing at a faster pace than everybody had thought it would, tax receipts will do the same, causing official estimates of the deficit to be overstated.  That means my forecasted end-of-calendar-year debt burden, 65.2% GDP, would turn out to have been too high—and that's just fine with me. 

Here are the usual charts: Debt Thermometer, Inflation Meter, and Debt Microscope.

Click to enlarge.

Click to enlarge.