I'm adding a new feature this month: GDP growth estimates calculated two different ways. Reason: The official method used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (yellow) has been tracking a little below an alternate method (blue) that seems to yield a better estimate based on some testing I did a few months ago. Here is the simple table I'll include from now on.
[UPDATE: Click here for a brief, explicit summary of the math.]
The latest Debt Thermometer (below) indicates that the USA's debt burden is inching upwards, as predicted. It stands at 64.9% of GDP now, and it should break 65% by year-end, as shown in the final chart (National Debt Microscope).
Final note: The Katrina catastrophe will have some perverse effects on some of the numbers economists and politicians like to watch, and I'll have more to say about that perversity within the next few days. [For now, a quick example will have to suffice: Some of the abundant bad news is that the port of New Orleans will be shut down for a period of time. However, given that imports exceed exports, that shutdown will have the perverse effect of reducing the trade deficit. The bean counters' reaction to those "improved" trade deficit numbers should answer a lot of questions about the wisdom of focusing narrowly on "deficit" numbers, shouldn't it?]
Click either graphic below to enlarge it.
